Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Multiple Change-point Problems

نویسندگان

  • Nick Whiteley
  • Christophe Andrieu
  • Arnaud Doucet
چکیده

Multiple change-point models are a popular class of time series models which allow the description of temporal heterogeneity in data. We develop efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in this context. Our so-called Particle MCMC (PMCMC) algorithms rely on an efficient Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique for change-point models, developed in [13], to build high-dimensional proposals. The construction of the new algorithms differs significantly from the PMCMC schemes proposed in [1]. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on various examples.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Bayesian change point estimation in Poisson-based control charts

Precise identification of the time when a process has changed enables process engineers to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for a Poisson process in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step < /div> change, a linear trend and a known multip...

متن کامل

Bayesian and Monte Carlo change-point detection

The contribution presents to analyses and comparison of the recursive (sliding window) Bayesian autoregressive normalized change-point detector (RBACDN) and the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method (RJMCMC) when they are used for the localization of signal changes (change-point detection). The choice of priors and parameter setting for the RJMCMC and the RBACDN are discussed. The eva...

متن کامل

Bayesian Estimation of the Multiple Change Points in Gamma Process Using X-bar chart

The process personnel always seek the opportunity to improve the processes. One of the essential steps for process improvement is to quickly recognize the starting time or the change point of a process disturbance. Different from the traditional normally distributed assumption for a process, this study considers a process which follows a gamma process. In addition, we consider the possibility o...

متن کامل

Improving SAMC Using Smoothing Methods: Theory and Applications to Bayesian Model Selection Problems

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll (2007) as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its convergence using smoothing methods and discuss the application of the new algorithm to Bayesian model selection problems. The new algorithm is tested through a change-point identification example. Th...

متن کامل

A Stochastic algorithm to solve multiple dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind

In the present work‎, ‎a new stochastic algorithm is proposed to solve multiple dimensional Fredholm integral equations of the second kind‎. ‎The solution of the‎ integral equation is described by the Neumann series expansion‎. ‎Each term of this expansion can be considered as an expectation which is approximated by a continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method‎. ‎An algorithm is proposed to sim...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2009